#forecast 019 : #update 2


Update

#forecast 019 : #update 2

Dear subscribers,

Another short form update

Cheers-Willy Woo


May 25 update

We saw a second wave of FUD following the announcement of a mining ban in China, price action was in recovery but dipped very suddenly on the 21st in reaction to the news. Despite this the underlying on-chain fundamentals have held ground and continue to recover.

Yesterday marked a strong swing of coins moving back to strong hands (Rick Astley), this is the event I’ve been waiting for to put further weight on recovery fundamentals.

Importantly, during this 2 week dip from $55k, the user growth on the network has climbed significantly, users are taking this opportunity to enter for the first time.

This is further supported by the holdings of Shrimps accelerating significantly. (Shrimps are those with less than 1 BTC in total holdings)

Short term BTC exchange flows signaled bullish 7 days ago. This trend has continued. Stablecoins are also entering exchanges. Fundamentally a buying pattern has cemented. The shape of the stablecoin flows are the most bullish I’ve seen since late March.

Stablecoin capitalisation, particularly USDT, has INCREASED. That’s to say throughout this pull back the capital in the crypto ecosystem has INCREASED.

Whale balances are now at the same levels last seen before the crash when BTC was at $55k, they’ve been buying back their coins.

100BTC – 1000BTC holders, Dolphin and Sharks, succumbed to the fear and sold off slightly the last 5 days are now back in accumulation, joining the whale buying.

Daily SOPR has now recovered to the 1.0 line. The market is no longer willing to sell at a loss.

Overall, investor confidence is returning. Many of the above touch points look very similar in structure to the COVID white swan recovery.

On the shortest (technical trading time frames) there’s an opening for a bump and run pattern, a small pull back to retest the prior resistance trend line, but overall the market is incredibly undervalued. NVT Price puts BTC at $55k while PlanB’s Stock to Flow model puts valuation at $60k.

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