Panic strikes again – Forecast #41.1 update

Dear subscribers,
This is a very short update, breaking from our normal format, to cover the liquidity crunch Bitcoin experienced today.
I’ll dive straight into the charts…
HODLer on-chain demand was soft the last few days, HODLers sold down slightly, while swing traders were buying. We haven’t seen any kind of a HODLer sell-off that typifies a bearish phase, not yet in any regards. I continue to monitor this. I’m still waiting for the tomorrow’s on-chain data to come in which will cover much of what happened today, but I can say right now most of the activity was liquidations on futures exchanges.


<<< November 28 chart.


Here’s the heatmap view of it. The lower blue trace are the coin flows in and out of HODLer wallets. They have sold down slightly, but nothing compared to a full blown bearish sell-off like we saw in May. Again most of the selling was trader liquidations on futures markets, they have now been flushed.
The final chart is the buying habits of shrimps (holders of less than 1 BTC). I like this metric as it gives insight into whether the market is truly structurally bearish. When shrimps sell after a crash, like in the December 2017 top, it’s a bad sign and typifies a bear market taking root. But what we are seeing so far is strong buying similar to the COVID 2020 v-shaped bottom.

I’ll continue to monitor the situation, awaiting tomorrow’s data. But for now the situation tentatively looks like a v-shaped recovery.
All the best, I’ll write again soon once more data is at hand.
-W


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