#forecast 052 : Still waiting

Dear subscribers,
Welcome to The Bitcoin Forecast #52.
This is a short interim update, from my last letter. Not a lot has changed, we are still waiting for demand to come back into the market.
Top level summary for 11th Mar 2022 (current price $39.1k):
> Structural summary: Institutions and large holders continue to sell down.
> Price action expectation: Bearish until we see signs of demand coming back into the market.
> Personal opinion: There’s no question we are in a bear market due to the duration of the sell-off. There’s never been a bottom of a bear market in BTC without a capitulation event, so I think there is a high probability that this region breaks down and we test lower lows before accumulation takes place to setup for the next bull cycle.
All the best.
-W

Analysis Breakdown

WHile hodlers are buying, demand has not come in yet

We have seen an uptick in hodler buying. Unfortunately this is more than balanced by selling on futures markets. As per my last letters we are waiting for demand to come in, and I think the first sign of this will be on the futures markets which tends to react faster.

Whales/Institutions continue to sell

Below is the chart of large holders of BTC, when they sell their impact is significant. We are now in a regime of whale selling.